Packing for the crash

[glenatron]

For the past few years global oil production has been stuck at around 73 to 74 million barrels of oil per day. Currently global demand is at around 88 million barrels per day. That, ladies and gentlemen, is Peak Oil right there.

Hold tight, it's going to be a heck of a drop.

Comments

[silks-ic.livejournal.com]

It'll be fine - whilst we are producing less oil than needed it's not anywhere near the amount that could be produced if Opec wanted to
Unless Israel attacks Iran
Then things are going to get very very very bad

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

Yes, because everyone knows how much Opec have in reserve, because they tell us. And they've been telling us that there has been no change in their reserves for the last 20 years or so and nobody independant has been able to take a look at those fields in that time so we only have their word for it.

Entertaining open letter to the Saudi king (http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2008/05/27/majesty-we-have-gone-mad/) from George Monbiot on precisely this...

The problem isn't the amount produced, it's the gap between supply and demand. Demand will not decrease any time soon and right now there is no evidence to suggest that supply can increase.

[penella22.livejournal.com]

yup, exactly. Which is why fiance and I are looking at scooters. 90-100miles a gallon sounds good. Doesn't fix things, but hopefully its a step in the right direction...

[evil-c.livejournal.com]

Its a good idea. Both my partner and I have have small engined motorbikes for the daily getting around so we only use our car when we have to. My motorbike costs me £8 to do about 130 miles whereas our car costs about £30 to do the same distance.

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

I like the fuel economy but I don't like the idea of spending each journey feeling like I could die at any moment. It's a tough one to balance.

People I know with motorbikes do seem to really enjoy them, though.

[penella22.livejournal.com]

the scooter we're looking at tops out at 30 mph, which is what in kms? 75km? I think roughly...certainly not taking your life in your hands if you choose your route carefully and don't go in faster traffic. we live in an urban enough place that its feasible to do that.

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

Round here the roads were designed for horses and carts and they tend to be narrow and windy, now they are mostly used by BMWs which tend to go shockingly fast. The thing about being limited to 30mph or thereabouts is that it's not ever so much faster than cycling, which I feel a bit safer doing and has all the associated benefits.

Both much better than driving, mind.

[penella22.livejournal.com]

you feel safer cycling??? Oh...maybe you can do that *not* in the road...

In my city, all the bikers are either (minority category) motivated by eco-consciousness, have helmets, safety lights, signal with their hands etc. OR they're the poor people who bike recklessly through traffic, no helmets, no signaling, and I am constantly in danger of hitting them. My only ray of hope is that maybe they are taking themselves out of the gene pool before they reproduce.

Yes, that was mean. Sorry. But URGH.

Anyways, all cycling citizens are in the road with traffic, at busy traffic jammy times of day, and THEN all the cars try to go round the bicyclist and you get a real mess. If you can cycle off-road, by all means, stick to that! Here, it is a bit safer to have a scooter because then you can go with the flow of traffic and the cars don't try to go round you quite so much.

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

I can do that not on the road, but as a cyclist I'm not quite so much part of the normal flow of traffic, so I'm something cars have to go round. It seems like motorcycles are easy to ignore- people seem to just not see them at all and if you do have someone pull out in front of you on a motorbike you're probably going faster and so you're more likely to hurt yourself.

[life-of-tom.livejournal.com]

I have to say, I find myself very confused every time someone claims that the best way to resolve a crisis based on high energy demand is to simply increase production of a finite resource. it's a bit like saying 'well, I've got no money, and I have a lot of outgoings right now, but I DO have a credit card.'

I have to say, I think that people who have a lot to do with horses might just be onto a winner, long term...

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

Indeed. A new austerity beckons. I think there may be uses for horses in the not too distant future, certainly emptier roads which will be good news. We can probably expect a stock market crash of at least 1929 magnitude as well, I'm not sure how one would make a profit off that knowledge, but I'm sure pessimism-based investment could make for a pessimist who is rarely disappointed.

"I'm an overnight millionaire! If only rampant inflation based on the same factors I used to plan my investment approach didn't mean that in real terms I'm no richer than I was yesterday, just like I said it would. Typical."

[stu-the-elder.livejournal.com]

Fear not, my floppy-haired indie kid. Crump's bickering-powered generator is in readiness! We can have another 50 years of power if you but kidnap Andrew Eldritch and Wayne Hussey.. then bring them to me..

- Crumpwright ;)

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

Do I need to post them airmail or can I send them by sea?

[stu-the-elder.livejournal.com]

Well, both of them have sung songs about the ocean, so I think they'd prefer the briny to the clouds.. more opportunities to sing maudlin sea-shanties..

[spirithorse21.livejournal.com]

It's scary how we've held on to petrol as the main source of fuel when we have so many other viable options out there.

I got all engineery, sorry.

[littlesnowy.livejournal.com]

It's surprising how tricky it is to do complete conversions of one energy source to another. The cost of the options doesn't really reflect value in use/lifecycle costs currently. Though there's every indication that they will soon. Solar power is looking better and better, there are some companies producing thin film cells without any heavy metals in currently, efficiencies still suck though (should say that suck last I heard, they're also increasing amazingly fast). Wind turbines I still have doubts over, the sheer wolume of steel used in them is amazing, particularly for off shore ones when it's non recoverable most of the time.

Much as I love the idea, there's little chance we'll maintain our current lifestyles by horsepower as it were.

[thewhitespider.livejournal.com]

Offshore wave power and small-scale modular coastal tide barrages do seem to offer a lot of potential, plus they have benefits in resisting coastal erosion and provide protection from storm damage. Small coastal barrages in particular are a nifty idea - they have a very flat resource/time curve to build and don't require a lot of metal (just a lot of concrete). Deep sea wave power will probably have to wait until we can handle piped hydrogen as an energy transfer method.

On the other hand, using tidal barrages will eventually make the Moon fall on us.

[littlesnowy.livejournal.com]

There's a nice design by dragon power (I think) which involves a floating set of pontoons to "collect" waves and dump them into a reservoir held up over the sea a few metres with a vertical axis turbine set in it. They claim it only needs 1/2 metre swells to run it continually. Excess water just slops over the sides of the reservoir.

I like the idea of coastal barrages, I don't trust most planning authorities to choose where to put them. People are unreliable.

I think there's a real massive change in energy demand that can be made first of all. Then I like alcohol powered systems rather than hydrogen, I know hydrogen is an easier fuel but the storage and transport sucks. Possibly if the new ideas about adsorbing/absorbing materials comes off.

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

The change in energy demand is pretty much the most significant thing we can do. It makes me so angry that governments who have known it was important for the last 30 years or so have refused to force even basic energy efficiency optimisations like decent amounts of insulation into building regulations. It would have been so much cheaper to build things to be efficient from the start compared to the cost of retrofitting insulation and whathaveyou.

I'm sure in the long run we'll find some awesome energy sources- I wouldn't be surprised if fusion generation turned out to be useful in the long term - but the problems of the ratio of energy-in to energy-out on everything apart from the current "pump it out of the ground with no difficulties" crude oil we've been using.

[thewhitespider.livejournal.com]

Thing about hydrogen, from my point of view, is that it's really easy to generate at sea. RO the seawater and crack it - release the oxygen and pipe the hydrogen ashore. Nice and clean. But you're right - storing it sucks.

People are unreliable, and should be replaced by Multivac.

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

That has just revealed a whole lot of what is really going on to me- who loves the moon? Moths do. And who tries to cover up our lights so we need more power? Moths do. It's all a devious ploy on the part of the nocturnal lepidoptera to drag their luminous lunar deity to earth.

[life-of-tom.livejournal.com]

It's always the moths. Pesky things, with their chalky little wings.

It really depresses me that we haven't legislated for increases to energy efficiency. The problem seems to be that if a politican stands up to say we need to be more frugal, then they get criticised for not trying to enable our current energy-guzzling, food-wasting, resource-consuming lifestyles. That's what got us into trouble in the first place.

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

I quite agree. Obviously, I'm not going to hang around and be frugal just so the chavs round the corner can have an extra three plasma-screen TVs, but I certainly agree in principle :D