“we are expecting that in three, four years’ time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline. … In terms of the global picture, assuming that OPEC will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well, which is of course not good news from a global oil supply point of view.” - Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency ( here )
The International Energy Agency is the organisation whose predictions with regard to oil reserves are used as the basis for government policy, certainly here, elsewhere in the world too, as far as I know.
We have ten years to wean ourselves off oil before we are forcibly weaned off it. Basically it's not possible. Almost every serious global problem facing us as a species now can be boiled down to an energy problem. The end of cheap oil is the end of our civilisation. Ten years.
There is a single slim ray of hope for us and even that option is close to intolerable. If the French save the world we'll never hear the last of it.