Signs and portents...

[glenatron]

Is this another indicator of the coming crisis?

Comments

[spirithorse21.livejournal.com]

very interesting. It really underlines the point that we NEED to utilize our alternate fuel sources, doesn't? And the wikipaedia mention of agriculture highlighted for me that I should consider tractors and other farming implements that can be powered but other fuel sources, such a Soy biodisel or ethanol when I finally get my CSA project up and running. Thanks for sharing.

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

Absolutely. But so many of them have a really bad energy in:energy out ratio. Nothing else comes close to oil for that one. Things are going to change in the next century or so in so many ways.

I suspect that then we'll really appreciate how lucky we are.

[gemmabowles.livejournal.com]

thats quite alarming. but like most people i feel theres nothing i can do, so i sit back and ignore it, cos it feels better to not recognise the problem than to recognise it and realise its you against some of the worlds most powerful people to try and stop it..

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

There is nothing we can do. We're living in Rome and it's 470AD. What's going to happen is going to happen, but a whole lot of stuff will change as a result.

My feeling is that an oil crash is the only thing that can actually get our carbon usage under control, so although it would potentially result in the end of civilisation as we know it, terrible wars (more terrible wars, the oil wars began years ago but there will be more) and the death of millions of people, at least there's a bit of a silver lining to it.

[stu-the-elder.livejournal.com]

As one of the Goths, I don't particularly fear this 470AD thing your Gregorian calends speak of. In fact, it might be healthy. What says Ben, Count of Moxon?

- Crumpwright ;)

[life-of-tom.livejournal.com]

Probably, yes. It's going to be transport networks that go first, I reckon. And when that happens, I guess that the only people who'll really prosper will be those who can provide some alternative means of getting quickly from A to B, and something other than engines to pull our vehicles. To my mind, that'd be horses...

[wldhrsjen3.livejournal.com]

Husband and I were discussing this last night!

The scary thing about an oil/fuel crunch is the impact it would have on *all* aspects of our culture and civilization. I've heard people talk about it only in terms of transportation or industry, but it has consequences on every aspect of our daily lives.

Food? Requires fuel for planting and harvesting. When crude oil prices go up, or supplies go down, so do the associated nitrogen fertilizers. Without adequate fertilizer, we cannot produce the yields that the world has come to rely on.

Clean water? Requires fuel for pumping, cleaning, transporting.

Health care? Needs energy to sustain standards of care.

We can't cook, clean, bathe, or travel without energy. Our society has become totally dependent on it. And although alternative fuels may help alleviate some of the burden, they are not a perfect solution. Look at corn prices this year. Even with record yields in many places, the price remains near record highs because consumption is higher than it's ever been. Ethanol eats grain stores that may be needed to feed the world, especially if the current areas of drought expand. And ethanol plants require vast quantities of water for production - water that is also becoming a resource in short supply.

I agree - our world is in for a nasty wake-up call.

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

I'm going to hide out in Constantinople for a thousand years or so.

[stu-the-elder.livejournal.com]

I dread to think who the new Crusaders will be..

- Crumpwright

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

It goes deeper than that even- plastics, medicines, pretty much the entire field of Organic Chemistry is derived from petrochemicals. And plant oils are a horribly inefficient source of energy, by comparison, not to mention the other outcomes of fossil fuel (http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2005/12/06/worse-than-fossil-fuel/). Interesting statistic from that article: Every year we burn an amount of fossil fuel that took 400 years to form. Entropy is just so powerful that we are going to get ourselves very seriously stuck here.

The other problem is that there comes a point (and it may be a point that is already gone) beyond which there isn't enough cheap oil left to turn ourselves away from using oil exclusively, where the amount of energy needed to change to new forms of energy is greater than the amount of energy available from cheap oil. If we hit that point there is going to be one heck of a hangover.

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

Indeed. Horses and bicycles will be well set to use our suddenly more empty roads, getting out of the way of the occasional state motorcade, burning the precious and dwindling fuel supplies to get important political envoys from one city state to another in the hope of exchanging precious food and medicines.

Actually horses will be really big in agriculture as well. They'll be back to tractoring. Achievable technologies may well give us more effective ploughs and harness, but they will probably end up being back to their role as engine...

[glenatron.livejournal.com]

I bet they'll be lead by people called Norman, just like last time.

[wldhrsjen3.livejournal.com]

"...where the amount of energy needed to change to new forms of energy is greater than the amount of energy available from cheap oil."

Hmm, good point. And scary thought.

[penella22.livejournal.com]

Didn't have time just now to read all of those links, but as this is a subject near and dear to me, just had to say, I am writing a thesis paper on the local food movement this semester, it is gaining a lot of popularity here where I live. Also, Bill McKibben has some very interesting comments here that are also very uplifting while having some realistic value as well.

I am very fortunate to live in one of the few parts of the U.S. that is quite actively involved in changing to a local economy - we even have a project for local currency, which will be a big help if / when things go down the drain...